Cognoscenti is an intelligence platform that brings together researchers, investors and organizations to answer the toughest multi-disciplinary questions of our time. We believe we have created the most efficient way to increase funding for research and provide real-time estimates of important future outcomes.

Our unique twist on the prediction market model is a staking pool that allows investors to follow researcher predictions, with a proportion of committed capital passed directly to the researcher. Our credential gating system allows only researchers with specific experience to vote, whilst a permissionless staking market helps to amplify the voice of credible researchers.

How it works

Companies or organisations open a prediction market with a specific question about a future event. For example, a company could ask 'What will be the average increase in global temperature by 2032?' to support it in stress testing, scenario analysis and business planning. To further incentive rapid responses, they can offer an additional reward to those who select the correct prediction bucket earlier on, whilst the odds are more uniform.
Researchers, or those with credentials specified by the market creator, can stake funds against their chosen prediction. The broader market is able to follow the predictions of researchers with the correct credentials or a track record of accurate predictions by staking in their response. The researcher receives a portion of any capital staked in their predictions, further incentivising them to conduct rigorous investigation.
A single aggregate outcome can be viewed at any point whilst the prediction market is open, calculated using the proportion of funds staked in each prediction.
An oracle is used to verify predictions using an HTTP endpoint specified at the creation of the market. In the case of failure, dispute mechanisms (such as Moloch Dao) can be initiated by any market participant.
The entire staking pool, in addition to the reward offered by the submitting organisation, is paid out to those who predicted the correct outcome specified by the oracle.